Charlie Munger最新觀點

Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

查理·芒格:「我和沃倫的電話沒有響個不停」

Will Berkshire step up now to buy businesses on the same scale?

伯克希爾·哈撒韋會像2008、2009年那樣進行同樣規模收購嗎?

「Well, I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes,」 Mr. Munger told me. 「We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing, ‘Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].’」

「嗯，我想説，當有史以來最嚴重的颱風來臨時，我們就像一位船長。」芒格説到，「我們只想逃離颱風，我們寧願帶着大量的流動性衝出去，我們很認真的對待，這不是鬧着玩的。「哦，太好了，一切都要完蛋了，我們想把100%的現金留着去收購企業。」

He added, 「Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.」

他補充道：「為了那些把90%淨資產都投資於伯克希爾的人，沃倫希望伯克希爾是安全的。我們總是站在安全的這一邊，但這並不意味着我們不能做一些積極的操作或抓住一些機會。基本上，我們是相對保守的，但也會在市場有明確安全預期時進場。」

Surely hordes of corporate executives must be calling Berkshire begging for capital?

肯定有很多公司高管打電話給伯克希爾，想要你們投資吧?

「No, they aren’t,」 said Mr. Munger. 「The typical reaction is that people are frozen. Take the airlines. They don’t know what the hell’s doing. They’re all negotiating with the government, but they’re not calling Warren. They’re frozen. They’ve never seen anything like it. Their playbook does not have this as a possibility.」

「不，他們沒有」，芒格説，「在危機下，人們最典型的反應是，好像都被嚇住了。以航空公司為例，他們不知道該怎麼辦，他們都在和政府談判，沒有人給沃倫打電話。他們的生產活動被凍結了，他們從來沒見過這樣的事，他們也沒想到過這種可能性。」

He repeated for emphasis, 「Everybody’s just frozen. And the phone is not ringing off the hook. Everybody’s just frozen in the position they’re in.」

他重複了一遍，強調説:「所有人好像都被嚇住了，而且我和沃倫的電話也沒有響個不停，每個人好像被困在了原地。」

With Berkshire’s vast holdings in railroads, real estate, utilities, insurance and other industries, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger may have more and better data on U.S. economic activity than anyone else, with the possible exception of the Federal Reserve. But Mr. Munger wouldn’t even hazard a guess as to how long the downturn might last or how bad it could get.

伯克希爾在鐵路、房地產、公用事業、保險和其他行業持有大量股份。巴菲特和芒格先生可能比其他人（除了美聯儲以外）有更多、更準確的關於美國經濟的數據。但芒格也不敢猜測經濟低迷會持續多久，或者會變得有多糟糕。

「Nobody in America’s ever seen anything else like this,」 said Mr. Munger. 「This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.」

「在美國，從來沒有人見過這樣的事情」，芒格説，「（疫情）與以往任何事情都不同。每個人都説他們知道會發生什麼，但沒有人知道會發生什麼。」

Is another Great Depression possible?

可能會出現另一場大蕭條嗎?

「Of course we’re having a recession,」 said Mr. Munger. 「The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.」

「當然，我們正在經歷一場衰退，」芒格説，「唯一的問題是它影響範圍有多大，持續時間有多長，但我們確切地知道這件事會過去。而具體會造成多少損失、衰退的程度有多大、會持續多久卻沒有人知道。」

He added, 「I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.」

他補充道:「我不認為我們會出現長期的大蕭條，政府會採取積極的舉措避免出現大蕭條。但我們會進入一段混亂的時期，美聯儲的‘印鈔’行為會對我們有所困擾。」

Can the government reduce its role in the economy once the virus is under control?

如果病毒得到控制，政府會降低其在經濟中的干預作用嗎？

「I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic consequences are going to be,」 said Mr. Munger. 「I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.」

「我們並不確切地知道會有哪些宏觀經濟的後果，」芒格説，「但我認為，早晚經濟將會復甦，那將會是温和的經濟增長。就業水平很可能再也恢復不到疫情發生前的水平，可能因為種種原因，我們永遠也回不到之前的就業率水平了，我不知道。」

Berkshire won’t escape unscathed. 「This will cause us to shutter some businesses,」 Mr. Munger said. 「We have a few bad businesses that...we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.」

伯克希爾不會毫髮無損，芒格説：「這場危機會使我們關閉一些業務。我們有一些經營不善的生意……作為（伯克希爾）家族企業中的一員，我們可以容忍（它們），但如果是其他企業，則已經被關閉了。我們有一些規模小的企業，關閉後將不會再開業了。」

Mr. Munger told me: 「I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not.」 The coronavirus shutdown is 「something we have to live through,」 letting the chips fall where they may, he said. 「What else can you do?」

芒格先生告訴我：「我完全不知道股市會不會創下新低。」他説，因為冠狀病毒帶來的全國隔離是我們必須要做的事情，只能順其自然了。「你還能做什麼呢？」

Investors can take a few small steps to restore a sense of control—by harvesting tax losses, for instance—but, for now, sitting still alongside Mr. Munger seems the wisest course.

投資者目前可以通過小幅的操作來恢復控制感，但是，就目前而言，和芒格先生保持一致似乎是最明智的做法。

【原文連結】